302 Roulette Systems (302 Sistemas de Ruleta)

Complete Betting System (CBS)

Thank you for purchasing the Complete Betting System, before you be come a successful, professional player, you need to work very hard on this system from now on.

Complete Betting System (CBS) Is a method of money management which relies on the simple truth that the probabilities of wins and losses in any game of chance are isolated incidents, niany of them come in bunches. This can be applied on all games with even money bets.

Anyone who disputes that streaks are commonplace and can always be relied upon to occur need read no further; CBS would work for them if they gave it a chance, but a player unable to accept the existence of trends (or a "pendulum") in all casino games should stick with random betting… and be ready to lose.

How CBS works

CBS's ultímate objective is to ensure that the house advantage in any game is neutralized. No system can alter the simple fact that over time, the player will lose more bets than he wins. Without that certainty, the casinos would have no reason to be in business. However, if the average value of all his winning bets exceeds the average value of his losing bets by a percentage greater than the house advantage (HA), the player will make money in spite of the fact that the house won more bets than he did.

Say what? Let's assume a house edge of 4 percent and take 100 bets in which the HA precisely matched the negative expectation for the game. There must therefore have been 48 winners and 52 losers, meaning that a "flat bettor" wagering 1 unit on each decision won 48 units and lost 52 units, giving up 4 percent of his "action" of 100 units.

Now let's assume an average loss of 1.6 units and an average win of 1.8 units. The average winning bet (AWB) exceeds the average losing bet (ALB) by 12 percent. Simple sum: 48 x 1.8 52 x 1.6 = 86.4 - 83.2 = a profit of 3.2 units on action of 170 units = a "player edge" of 1.88 percent in spite of an HA of 4 percent.

I have already shown you how this can be achieved consistently without the aid of a crystal ball, but the basic principle bears repeating: freeze or reduce your next bet in response to a loss and press your bet in response to a win and over time you will neutralize the house edge. How much time? How long is a piece of string? Answer: as long as it needs to be.

Of course, if wins and losses only came in ones and twos, this principle wouldn't work. Streaks in both directions are a predictable reality in games of chance, however. That won't help you if you don't set your bet according to an achievable win target, and that's what CBS is all about.

When CBS made its debut, several math-mad computer mavens leaped forward to offer to write source code for simulations which would prove that this particular method of progressive betting is no better than any other. After months of to-ing and from-ing, caused by the inability of all these experts to apply the CBS rules correctly, the most persistent among them pronounced that my method had an expected win rate of over 99.5 percent or about the same as a Small Martingale.

That would be good news, but for the fact that the value of losses falling within the 0.5 percent was predicted to exceed the value of combined wins by an amount equal to the percentage of the house advantage.

There are a couple of observations that are appropriate here. Firstly, I say again that simulations by their nature assume that a player will keep betting even when the house advantage swings so far out of whack that his bankroll is under serious threat. That just isn't how people play.

Secondly, the Martingale or double-up method is doomed as soon as it hits a losing streak of a dozen bets or more, where as CBS freezes the bet in response to a win and requires it to be repeatedly halved after a certain point. So, a Martingale better trying to win at a casino with a 3,000-unit house limit will run out of options once a dozen consecutive losses require that his next bet be 4,096 units. Hers 4,095 units "in the hole" and the math guys say that if he reduces his next bet to 3,000 units and wins, then he's still in trouble.

They're a hard-headed bunch, the "math mob" — they donTt accept that Mr. Martingale could stay in play and within the house limit by betting 3,000 units again after a win, thereby if he wins winding up a punishing sequence with an overall profit of 1,814 units… but that's a different argument.

What's relevant here is that CBS isn't fazed by a long string of losses: it simply stands still for a while, then starts to reduce the bet to ease the pressure on the bankroll, and keeps doing so until a win is achieved.

A Glossary of CBS terms:

There are seven terms in CBS, you must fully understand.

A "Series" is a sequence of bets, that means the player starting the first bet and working towords a profit. You have to learn all the terms of CBS which may use in a Series.

For example start bet with $1 then $2, $2, $4, $7, $4, $6, $7, $5, …, this is a series.

1. LTD and NB

The LTD is a pair of figures you will need to keep in you head at all times (LTD,NB). If you can't handle simple mental arithmetic, write it down on a paper. If you are a card counter this is easy for you to keep the LTD in you mind.

LTD is short for loss-to-date, and the first figure in the pair tells you how many you're currently down according to the special tracking method the system uses. The second figure indicates the correct next bet (NB); basically, you NB stays the same after a loss and increases according to a fixed formula after a win. (Sometimes the NB decreases after a loss: more about that later).

2. Steal

The "Steal" is a process by which the final profit when a recovery series is resolved is deliberately inflated. When you win, say, 3 units you steal one unit before deducting the win from the LTD and calculating the valué of the next bet (NB). Example: -1, -1, -1, -1, -1, -1, -1, -1, -1 (9,1), +1 (9,1), +3 (7,4), +4 (4,5), -5 (9,5), -5 (14,5), -5 (19,5), + 5 (15,6), +6 (10,7), +7 (4,5), +5 (0,0). The LTD after the win that ended a streak of 9 losses was "9,3" because the single unit won was not deducted from the loss-to-date. The NB jumped from 1 to 3 units for reasons I will explain in a moment. The LTD for the series changed as follows: -1, -1/ -1, -1, -1, -1, -1, -1, -1, +1 (9,3), +3 (7,4), +4 (4,5), -5 (9,5), -5 (14,5), -5 (19,5), +5 (15,6), +6 (10,7), +7 (4,5), +5 (EOS = end of series).

3. Jump

The "Jump" uses the first figure in the LTD to set the value of the NB. The idea is to exploit a potential winning streak realistically, establishing a win target attainable without divine intervention. You'll find step-by-step rules below and will learn that the height of the Jump varíes according to the first figure in the LTD. My recommendation is that you do not divide the LTD by less than 6 to get the revised NB, meaning that a seven-bet win streak will end the recovery series, the LTD can divided by 4 to 6 the smaller Jump value, the fewer bet win streak is required, but make sure that your have enough bankroll to use this progressive jump like 4.

Don't misunderstand the thinking here: I am not saying that seven-bet hot streaks are frequent or even necessary to CBS's success. But I am saying that your next bet must always be guided by full knowledge of how much you must win in order to turn a recovery series around and come out with a profit.

4. Pump

The "Pump" is another device to maintain the valué of the NB at a level that makes recovery attainable. The Pump percentage I use is 20 percent, meaning that after the first win in a potential hot streak, you multiply the previous bet by 1.2 to get the NB. The first win after a losing streak (the previous bet when you're trying to figure the Pump) was set by the Jump, and now it's time to press a little harder.

Here's a sample sequence with the Steal, the Jump and the Pump all in play: (49,8) -8 (57,8), -8 (65,8), -8 (73,8), +8 (66,11), +11 (56,13), +13 (44,16), -16 (60,16), -16 (76,16), +16 (61,19), +19 (43,23), +23 (21,22). In this sequence there were 5 losses and 6 wins, but to get you to the opening LTD of 49,8 the house advantage must have been running high beforehand. Generally, you should expect to lose more bets than you win (the casino depends on that). The trick is to make sure that you "Wín more when you win than you lose when you lose", and that's what CBS is all about. In this example, the 5 losses averaged -11 units, and the six wins averaged +15. That's a good thing! Note that when the first figure in the LTD dropped to 21, the NB became 22 and not 23 x 1.2 (28), applying a rule that the NB after a win can never be less than the LTD divided by 6 or more than the L1D+1 unit. More about that in a moment.

5. Halving

Next: "Halving". This is exactly what it sounds like: at a certain point in a losing streak, CBS requires you to reduce further potential losses by cutting your bet down the middle. Again, balance is important here — do it too soon or too often, and your bet will bounce up and down like a yo-yo gone wild, punching you further into the hole with each downturn.

The Halving rule limits the ploy to bets in double figures and reguires you to hold off until you have lost two "whole" bets in a row or, in blackjack, have seen a double or split raked into the dealer's tray. What you're trying to avoid is the damage from a "volley" — (60,10), -10 (70,5), +5 (66,11), -11 (77,6), +6 (72,12), -12 (84,6), +6 (79,13), and so on — and since paired losses are about half as frequent as isolated ones — the "two lost bets" rule works well.

If you can get away with it, keep halving until the NB gets down to single digits, remembering that the lower you go, the bigger will be the Jump when you finally win a bet and have to recalculate the NB as LTD/6. Here's another example: (169,58), -58 (227,58), -58 (285,29) Halving, -29 (314,15), -15 (329,8), -8 (337,8), +8 (330,55) Jump. It's quite a jump from 8 units to 55 — more than a parlay, that's for sure.

6. Dump

The final CBS oddity is the "Dump". Translation: run for the hills. This is a concession to the tendency we all have to beat a safe retreat when a dealer gets hot or our "luck" runs cold. Computer simulations presume that a player will stick it out through thick and thin, betting bravely onward regardless of repeated punishment and waiting patiently for a negative trend to reverse itself. Human beings just don't play that way.

For years, I applied a graded approach to the Dump, bailing out of a bad situation when the first figure in the LTD hit 100, then 200, then 500, then 1000, then 2000 and so on. Much as I dislike "sims", because they cannot reflect real gambling conditions, they have at least taught me that a better way to go is to track wins and losses on a simple basis and take a walk if the house gets, say, 10 bets ahead.

I'd rather not apply the Dump at all, but human nature — mine, at least — doesn't permit me to bet on and on like a senseless robot when I'm getting my butt kicked. So, it makes sense to regulate the bail-out process. A guiding principle of CBS is to provide a rule to cover every situation that could possibly arise in a game of chance, relieving the player of the agonies of indecision. OK, that makes me a robot after all, but not a senseless one, since all of the system rules are based upon logic and common sense.

The Rules of CBS

Here are the system rules, step by step:-

1. Bet the mínimum (MIN), your own or the table mínimum on the first decisión in a series.
2. WIN, bet MIN+1, and be ready to follow the CBS win progression:
   At a $5 table and each unit is $5, the progression vrill be:
   MIN=1 Unit (+1), 2, 2, 4, 7, 11, 16, 22, 29, 37, etc.
   At a $25 table and each unit is $5, the progression will be:
   MIN=5 Unit (+5), 6, 6, 8, 11, 15, 20, 26, 33, 41, etc.
   When LOSE, bet the same amount.
   
   When the win progression ends, set the next bet (NB) at 2 units, except when a split/double increases the loss to more than the initial bet, in which case freeze the NB at that point.
   EXAMPLE: +1, +2, +2, +4, +7, +11, -16, +2.
   EXAMPLE: +1, +2, +2, +4, +7, +11, -32 (double/split), +16.
3. Any win after a succession of losses invokes the Steal principie, whereby a single chip is deducted from the win before the loss to date (LTD) is revised.
4. The LTD consists of two figures, best expressed as "n1,n2". The first figure, n1, is the amount DOWN at any point, and is inflated by the Steal; n2 is the amount OUT — meaning the value of the next bet (NB) "out" on the table. Think of the LTD as "Down comuna Out" and the mental chore of revising it after each outcome will quickly become second nature.
   
   EXAMPLE: -1, -1, -1, -1, -1, -1, -1, +1 (7 DOWN, 2 OUT), +2 (6,3), -3, -3, +3 (10,4), +4 (7,5), +5 (3,4), -4, -4, +4 (8,5), +5 (4,5), +5 (EOS = end of series). HA 16% but TA wins 8 units = 16% of Action of 50u.
5. A win after one or more losses also invokes the Jump, whereby NB is calculated by dividing n1 (the inflated loss to date) by a predeterminad amount. I recommend that if n1 is 20 or less, NB = n1/4; if n1 is more than (>) 20 and less than (<) 51, NB = n1/5; if n1 > 50, NB = n1/6.
6. After a win, NB must never be LESS than the first figure in the LTD (n1) divided by 6 or MORE than n1+1. If EOS is achieved, NB always falls back to the mínimum.
7. After a win to which the Jump has been applied, use the Pump to press the NB further. This increase should be 20 percent, rounded, meaning that it has no effect until the previous bet (PB) hits 8 units (8 x 1.2 = 9.6 = 10).
   
   EXAMPLE: (99,17), -17, -17, -17, +17 (134,23), +23, +28, -34 (119,34), +34 (86,41), +41 (46,47), +47 = EOS. NOTE that 41 x 1.2 = 49.2 = 49 but the final CBS bet was reduced to 47 that your next bet (NB) must never exceed DOWN+1.
8. Use Halving to limit potential losses as soon as you lose two successive bets of 10 units or more, and keep Halving until NB reaches single digits. In blackjack, start Halving if a double/split (two or more hands, in effect) costs you 20u or more. Blackjack players conscious of dealer/pit scrutiny should not use Halving more than twice in any sequence.
   
   EXAMPLE: (99,17), -17, -17, -9, +9 (134,23), -23, -23, -12, -6, +6 (192,32), -32, -32, -16, -8, -8, +8 (271,46), +46, +55, +66, +79 (28,29), +29 = EOS.
9. Halving does NOT apply if a win progression ends with a lost double/split but takes effect if another double-digit loss is suffered.
   
   EXAMPLE: +1, +2, +2, +4, +7, +11, -32 (17,16), -16, -8, +8 (34,10), +10, +12 (14,14), +15.
10. If, as above, raising the NB to match DOWN+1 will increase it by not more than 10 percent, make the adjustment In the hope that EOS will be achieved. otherwise, a series will be extended for an extra one or two bets, which is contrary to our objective: wrapping up a recovery series in as few bets as possible before reverting to a mínimum bet and starting a new series. In our example above, a win at 14,14 would have given us an LTD of 1,2 because of the Steal.
11. Use the Dump to stop play in a damaging location, transferring the LTD in full to a new deck, shoe or table whenever it's convenient. Experienced gamblers know that trends exist, and that a persistent downturn will sometimes seem unbeatable. The basic rule is to quit playing and move as soon as the second of two successive losses takes the LTD above 100 units, then 200, then 500, 1000, 2000 and so on. Don't Dump if Halving has already begun, or within five bets of the last move. An alternative is to track wins and losses and Dump as soon as the house gets, say, 10 bets ahead of you in any series (for instance, if the house has taken 16 bets vs. your 6). The advantage of this method is that it's more consistent than the original variable trigger approach.
12. In blackjack, play strictly according to basic strategy. There are about as many variations on the BPS (basic playing strategy) as there are "experts" on the game, but if you stick strictly to whichever book you choose, you will reduce the house edge to substantially less than 1 percent.

A Simple Test of CBS

If you're among the doubters, try this little test: take the K and Q of hearts out of a single deck, creating a stack of 50 cards in which there are 26 blacks and 24 reds and black therefore has an advantage over red of 4 percent. Shuffle them rigorously, then turn them over one by one, using the CBS rnethod to bet that the next card will be red. The HA will vary before each card is dealt, depending on how many blacks and reds have preceded it, but you can realistically expect a 4 percent house edge before the first card is turned over, and the same house edge before the 50th card is exposed. Time and again, you will finish the deck with CBS substantially in profit in spite of a clear, absolute house advantage. The red/black test will sometimes hit the end of the deck in the middle of the recovery series, but then you do just as you would in a casino and roll over the LTD to the first "hand" of the nevr "shoe".

So "any amount bet against a negative expectation must have a negative result" is false for this test, and false for any other gambling proposition with a reasonable house edge (your definitlon of "reasonable" may differ from mine, so let's say that anything over 5 percent is a gouge). The negative expectation mantra holds true ONLY for flat or random betting: skilled, systematic money management reduces the "ultimate axiom" to bilge-water.

The counter argument (pun intended) against the red/black test is that it's possible to track — or count — the black cards and deduce when the composition of the remaining cards is favorable, indicating an increased bet. Try it yourself and you will quickly find that the only time this versión of counting is helpful is when all 26 black cards have been exposed and you know for sure that only reds remain. It's the same with blackjack: as long as there are any small cards left, you can never be sure of the fate of your bet, and that's why a "case-downer" can lose a bundle when he's betting the farm against what seems to be a favorable deck value.

Also relevant to the red/black test is the observation that success against 50 outcomes doesn't "prove" anything: it's too small a sample. Fair enough, but the point Is that big or small, it's a sample in which the HA can be predicted, and every time CBS is an overall winner against a 4 percent HA, the negative expectation axiom is squashed.

I have proved CBS many times by presenting the red/black test as a game in which they have a cast-iron, guaranteed edge. The certainty that they will win four bets more than me in every 100 sounds irresistible, but after I have relieved them of their entire bankroll a few times — we never play with anything deadlier than pennies! — they usually see reason.

Lastly, a clarification of the Dump. Walking away from a costly string of losses is not merely an option for a real gambler (as opposed to someone who bases his "knowledge" of casino garnes upon computer simulations): it's a fact of life. Everyone does it, and everyone should do it. It's a difficult thing to regulate because so many influences push us to the point where we don't want to play any more against a particular dealer or at a particular table. To name a few: dealer hot streaks, prod-nose pit bosses, incompetent and/or inebriated players, fatigue, boredom, hunger and a stressed-out bladder. Proponents of computer simulations argue that their pale imitations of casino games are mathematically accurate, but in truth they can't be. No simulation exists which can imitate more than one or two components of real casino play at a time, and their most critical omission is human nature. I don't recommend changing your bet or varying basic blackjack strategy on a whim because one of the primary principies of CBS is that consistency is critical to long-term profit. But I do encourage you to back off from a game the moment you begin to feel uncomfortable or pessimistic: never, ever play if it doesn't "feel right".

There's no way a computer simulation can ape a gut feeling that tells a player when to quit, and it's difficult to devise rules to cover that situation. CBS's Dump will sometimes save your bankroll and will sometimes pull you out of the frying pan and into the fire. The one advantage of a computer simulation is that it enables you to test a variety of strategems against the same set of outcomes, but even when analysis of a million plays indicates that you would have won more without the Dump than with it, you can't say, "OK, I'll never walk away from a game again" because uninterrupted betting is an impossibility in real life.

I suggested earlier that one way to "Dump" is to walk away from a shoe (or a series) if the house pulls 10 bets ahead of you, winning 15 bets out of the first 20, for example. At -10, you won't have to move very often, whereas at -5 you'll be abandoning non-profitable situations pretty frequently, taking your LTD with you to another location and resuming play per the system rules. Personally, I favor frequent moves and "natural breaks" — they alleviate boredom and keep me alert, and reduce the temptation to wobble off the rails and temporarily depart from the rules (always a no-no!). Bottom line: it's up to the player.

How to use CBS Step by Step

After you had fully understand all the terms and the rules of CBS, we will now start to bring into exercise.

Example 1: The Red/Black of Roulette (We bet RED this time)

Example 2: The Red/Black of Roulette (We bet BLACK this time)

Example 3A: The Red/Black of Roulette (We bet BLACK this time)

(Jump example LTD divided by 6)

** With the same outcome with Example 1**

My recommendation is that you do not divide the LTD by less than 6 to get the revised NB, meaning that a seven-bet win streak will end the recovecy series.

Let's see what's happen in 3B if we divided the LTD by using 4 as the jump value.

Example 3B: The Red/Black of Roulette (We bet BLACK this time)

(Jump example LTD divided by 5)

** With the same outcome with Example 1**

The LTD can divided by 4 to 6 the smaller Jump value, the fewer bet win streak is required, but make sure that your have enough bankroll to use this progressive jump.

Example 3C: The Red/Black of Roulette (We bet RED this time)

** With the same outcome with Example 1**

How big a bankroll does CBS need? "As big as possible" isn't an acceptable answer, so I'll say this: I have often walked away a substantial winner after bankrolling my methods with 20 units or less — but I don't recommend it. You need to be able to ride out negative trends, and the absolute mínimum required to beat a pendulum that refuses to swing your way is 100 units. My greatest success has been with a 500-unit bank, but the real objective of CBS is to keep building your stash by adding to it after every winning session, splitting the take down the middle and extracting only half of your winnings as true profit.

What about a stop-loss? As with the bankroll, this is a "How long is a piece of string?" question, and the answer is, "As long as it needs to be". I'm not trying to be evasive here, because it seems obvious to me that the bigger your bankroll and the higher your stop-loss, the smaller is your risk of loss. I do not, however, endorse the "expert" who advised me that "an infinite bankroll has a positive expectation". He's right, in a fantasy world where casinos permit you to bet as much as you want, but since table limits and house limits are an inescapable fact of gambling life, being right is in this instance irrelevant.

Do this: test CBS thoroughly at your "home casino", and don't even think of backing It with a thin dime until you have learned the rules upside down and inside out. Get a feel for its strengths and weaknesses, make whatever adjustments and adaptations you see fit without undermining the fundamentals, then back it with as much money as you can afford to lose. I haven't had a losing year since 1989 — but because like most of you, I'm a working stiff with limited resources, I haven't made a fortune either. No gambler should take on the monetary muscle of a casino without understanding that the fact that the house has more "ammo" than he does is the first and biggest strike against him, no matter the game he chooses to play. Rich losers have dumped fortunes because they believed money could buy victory against the house advantage. Fact is, money's a big help, but wits and consistency are far more powerful weapons.

Without money management, the only allies the gambler has are luck and intuition, and neither of those is reliable. One of CBS's great strengths is that it is virtually undetectable, and therefore unlikely to attract casino "heat". A card counter's bets fluctuate according to the deck value and the same index requires him to vary his basic strategy, moves that frequently wave red flags at paranoid pit prod-noses. A CBS player rarely has to increase his bet by more than a parlay, and the system's one big giveaway — cutting the bet back to the minimum after a recovery series is resolved — can be camouflaged by simply moving to another table before starting a new series.

Here's a modest prediction: soon enough, CBS will become the way smart players everywhere achieve an edge against the house: that's something you can count on. Perhaps you can also count on the casinos to do all they can to cripple the system's use, but since counter measures such as limiting the permitted spread at any one table — $5 to $50, $25 to $200, $100 to $1000 or whatever — will inconvenience random bettors without hurting CBS — they'll probably be a long time coming. Most gamblers don't bother to learn simple strategies to improve their odds, let alone complex methods of money management, and that makes the CBS player a member of a 1 percent elite. Make the most of it!

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